Author Shahab Enam Khan is a Professor of International Relations at Jahangirnagar University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
The country faces prospects of continuing political and social unrest as well as economic meltdown.
A day after massive and unrelenting public protests forced Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to quit and flee to India, an interim government, that is expected to steer the country out of a Himalayan-size mess, is slowly taking shape in Dhaka.
While Nobel laureate and Bangladesh’s veteran economist Mohammad Yunus has agreed to head the interim regime, the names of the advisors who will support him are not yet known.
Faced with an ultimatum by the students, Bangladesh President Mohammad Shahabuddin hurriedly dissolved the controversial 12th Jatiya Sangsad or Parliament on August 6, paving the way for the assumption of authority by an interim government.
Bangladesh was in the throes of a student-led agitation that turned violent on July 14 after one of the protesters was shot in his chest by the police from close range.
This triggered a backlash among students, who turned on the government, especially the police and other security forces, as they clashed in deadly street fights and gunfire, resulting in the death of at least 440 demonstrators, nearly 50 policemen and several thousand were injured.
The situation took a turn for the worse when supporters of the Jamaat-e-Islami and its students wing, the Islami Chhatra Shibir, joined in and contributed to the mayhem.
However, it took a student-led “Long March to Dhaka” on August 5 and the threat of an imminent storming of Hasina’s official residence, Ganabhaban, to force her to resign and take a flight out to refuge in India. Several ministers, MPs, bureaucrats and former intelligence officers, also fled to different destinations.
After Hasina’s departure, the country was plunged into yet another round of blood-letting, looting and destruction of public property, with Awami League MPs and supporters targeted across most districts.
New opportunity
The overthrow of the Awami League regime marks a pivotal point in Bangladesh’s history, unseen since the violence and chaos that led to the country’s birth in 1971.
While the future of the Awami League is now uncertain, the deadly – and dramatic – events of the last three weeks also open the potential for a new, more inclusive political landscape in the coming days.
Army chief General Waker-uz-Zaman has assured the nation an interim government would take into consideration public demands.
He called for an all-party and civil society dialogue to ensure that the army’s moves post-Hasina would be in the right direction.
The overthrow of the 15-year uninterrupted rule of the repressive Hasina regime reflected the Bangladeshi people’s remarkable resilience.
With the lines of conflict sharp, the spectre of prolonged social and political disturbances looming large and an imminent economic meltdown, the interim regime has a seemingly insurmountable task before it.
First, Yunus must deploy all his leadership skills – which will be tested in these extreme circumstances – to pull Bangladesh out of the abyss by trying to bridge the yawning gap between the remnant of the Awami League, Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the Jamaat-e-Islami, the police, paramilitary forces and the army.
While the interim regime could consider disbanding the police force and weeding out pro-Awami League officers, it could also begin work on restoring people’s faith in the law enforcement agencies.
Attempts must be made to repair and restore state and democratic institutions that were systematically destroyed by Hasina’s government.
Political reconciliation
The Awami League, the BNP and the Jamaat have vastly different perceptions of almost every aspect of the state and the nation. Bringing them to the peace table will be difficult but not impossible if other significant stakeholders such as civil society organisations are allowed to take part in the conflict transformation efforts.
Importantly, Bangladesh’s new managers must revisit the client-patron relationship that existed in the country’s ties with India when Hasina was at the helm.
The three-week-long orgy of violence left hundreds dead and thousands maimed across Bangladesh. The interim regime needs to make Herculean efforts to apply the balm of kindness among the worst affected sections of the population, including women.
Yunus can show boldness to usher in amendments to certain constitutional provisions (for instance, the 15th Constitutional amendment in 2011) which were systematically repudiated or violated to safeguard the interests of the Awami League and Sheikh Hasina.
The rule of law and equality before the law should be other focus areas of reform since the public loss of confidence in the judiciary was complete.
Over the last one year or so, among the worst victims of the Awami League’s ravages, depredations and predatory politics was the economy.
Bangladesh’s forex reserves, officially pegged at US$15.82 billion, need to be nursed back to a healthy deposit even as the economists in the interim regime have to work tirelessly to improve its balance of payments.
At the same time, Yunus and his colleagues will need to restore confidence in Bangladesh’s expatriate community so remittances don’t dry up.
Even as the crackdown on corrupt businessmen – the comprador class – is expected to be harsh, the interim regime can take decisive action to bring back huge amounts of money moved illegally to banks abroad. Identifying the businessmen and proceeding with criminal cases against them is an option.
Sustaining national confidence and restoring public order should be the common denominator across all the policy issues and prescriptions that lie before the interim regime, which itself should be inclusive and efficient.
Bangladesh has had previous unfortunate experiences – in 2007, for instance – of interim governments. It cannot let slip another opportunity to heal itself.
Shahab Enam Khan is a Professor of International Relations at Jahangirnagar University, Dhaka. His research interests are in foreign affairs, defence and security studies with special focus on terrorism and extremism, migration and energy. His regional focus included Southeast and South Asia and the Indo-Pacific region. He obtained a PhD from the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, in 2021.
(This article is republished from 36oinfo under Creative Commons.)
