Several exit polls released on Wednesday projected a strong performance for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Assam and indicated a closely fought contest in West Bengal, while forecasting the return of incumbent governments in Tamil Nadu and a comeback for the Congress-led alliance in Kerala.
In Assam, pollsters widely predicted a decisive victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Axis My India projected 88–100 seats for the NDA in the 126-member Assembly, comfortably above the majority mark of 64, while giving the Congress-led alliance 24–36 seats. Other agencies such as People’s Pulse and Matrize also indicated a clear advantage for the NDA.
In Kerala, exit polls suggested a return to power for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), challenging the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF). Most projections placed the UDF above the majority mark of 71 in the 140-member Assembly, with the NDA expected to remain a marginal player.
In West Bengal, the contest appeared more competitive. While People’s Pulse predicted that the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) led by Mamata Banerjee would retain power with 177–187 seats, other agencies such as Matrize and P-Marq suggested a possible edge for the BJP, projecting it to cross the majority mark of 148 in the 294-member Assembly.
Tamil Nadu exit polls pointed towards the return of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance. Most projections placed the DMK alliance comfortably above the majority mark of 118 in the 234-seat Assembly, ahead of the AIADMK-BJP combine and other players, including actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).
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In Puducherry, exit polls predicted a return to power for the NDA government led by the All India N.R. Congress (AINRC), with estimates ranging between 16 and 20 seats in the 30-member Assembly.
Despite these projections, analysts cautioned that exit polls have historically shown mixed accuracy and may not always reflect final outcomes.
The counting of votes for all five assemblies—Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Puducherry—is scheduled for May 4. Voting was held in single phases in Assam, Kerala, Puducherry, and Tamil Nadu, while West Bengal went to polls in two phases.
Voter turnout remained high across states, with Assam recording 85.38 percent and Puducherry 89.83 percent participation, both surpassing previous records. Tamil Nadu also saw a record turnout of 84.69 percent, while West Bengal registered an impressive 91.78 percent turnout in the first phase.
